Late August, September peak of hurricane season for Atlantic Canada

Chris Fogarty, program supervisor with the Canadian Hurricane Centre, said Friday that the next six weeks are their busiest of the six-month hurricane season which began in June and runs until November.

“People should not let their guard down thinking the waters are nice and chilly this year and that we should be OK, that’s certainly not the way to look at it,” he said. “It could still be active for us even though it’s been un-summerlike so far. It doesn’t take long for the water temperatures to warm up. Even if they were still cool, all you need to do is look back at hurricane Igor in Newfoundland last year, which strengthened as it moved over colder water because it was interacting with a cold front.”

Fogarty said the cool, rainy weather so far this summer has made for a bit of a different start to the hurricane season, but pointed out that the area of cool water is fairly localized off Nova Scotia and tropical systems really pick up their energy while forming in the south. He also said the biggest factor in what type of hurricane season Atlantic Canada experiences is the weather pattern, which can change quickly and at any time.

Fogarty said if the weather pattern stayed as it has been the last few weeks, most tropical storms would probably not even track towards Canada, but noted that pattern does appear to be shifting and any significant period of warmer weather increases the chances of an active hurricane season.

“If the weather locally here in Nova Scotia is tropical-feeling — warm, sunny — than that raises the chance of a storm making its way up,” he said.

There have been five named storms — Emily, being the most recent — to date in 2011, which is about average for this point in the Atlantic hurricane season, according to Fogarty. He noted none of the five tropical systems have developed into hurricanes and none of them have even come close to Canadian waters.

But he expects that will change soon.

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Late August, September peak of hurricane season for Atlantic Canada
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The broad mass of low pressure will start to enter a more favorable area for development in the next few days but by then it would likely be over or even past the northern Bahamas, said Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the National Hurricane Center.



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